The S&P 500 earnings season for the third quarter is about to begin, and the numbers analysts are pencilling in are unusually strong. Big banks start reporting on 13 October, and over the following weeks most of the 500 companies in the index will publish results for July, August and September.
Here is the headline. According to data provider FactSet, analysts expect profits across the index to grow about 29.5% from a year ago. That would be the third quarter in a row above 25%.
This guide explains what the S&P 500 earnings season is, what the numbers say so far, which sectors are driving them, and how a beginner can read the results without panicking over one headline.
Table of Contents
- What Is the S&P 500 Earnings Season?
- What Analysts Expect This Quarter
- Companies Are Sounding Upbeat
- Which Sectors Drive the S&P 500 Earnings Season
- Early Reports From Fiscal-August Companies
- Valuation: Are Stocks Expensive?
- How the Fed Could Shape the S&P 500 Earnings Season
- Key Dates to Watch
- What Beginners Can Do During the S&P 500 Earnings Season
- Risks and Unknowns
- More Reading and Sources
- FAQ
- Final Thoughts
What Is the S&P 500 Earnings Season?
Every three months, listed companies must tell shareholders how much they sold and how much profit they made. The stretch of weeks when most of the S&P 500 does this is called the S&P 500 earnings season. It begins with the big banks in the middle of the month after a quarter ends and runs for roughly six weeks.
Two numbers get the most attention. Earnings per share (EPS) shows profit for each share of stock. Revenue shows total sales. Analysts publish forecasts for both, so investors judge each report against that bar. A company can post higher profit than last year and still see its shares fall if it misses what the market expected.
For ordinary investors, the season matters because stock prices are ultimately tied to company profits. When profits rise faster than expected, prices tend to get support. When they disappoint, prices can drop quickly.
What Analysts Expect This Quarter
FactSet’s latest tally, dated 2 October 2026, puts expected third-quarter earnings growth for the S&P 500 at 29.5%. Back on 30 June, the forecast stood at 26.7%, so analysts have been raising their numbers, not cutting them. Revenue is forecast to rise 12.3%, up from 10.9% three months ago.
If those figures hold, the quarter would be the third in a row with profit growth above 25%, the eighth straight with double-digit growth, and the third straight with double-digit revenue growth.
Not every source agrees on the exact figure. A separate preview based on a different method, published by FXStreet, shows expected profit growth of about 24.6% and revenue growth near 11.6%. The gap comes from how each provider counts, so treat any single number as an estimate. What matters is that both point to strong double-digit growth.
Companies Are Sounding Upbeat
Before each quarter ends, many firms give a rough outlook for their own earnings. This is called guidance, and it is a useful early signal because executives know their order books better than outside analysts do.
FactSet counts 116 S&P 500 companies that have issued guidance for the third quarter. Of those, 72 were positive and 44 were negative. That works out to about 62% positive, well above the five-year average of roughly 40% and the ten-year average of 41%.
In plain terms, more management teams than usual are telling investors that results will beat the typical expectations. It does not guarantee a strong season, but it lowers the odds of an ugly surprise.
Which Sectors Drive the S&P 500 Earnings Season
The S&P 500 is divided into eleven sectors, and all eleven are projected to grow earnings this quarter. Five are expected to post double-digit gains. Energy, information technology, communication services and materials sit at the front of that group.
The sector mix matters because a few big names can lift the whole index. FXStreet’s version of the data shows that profit growth would fall from about 24.6% to roughly 20.5% if energy were removed, and to about 14.6% if technology were removed. That tells you two sectors carry a large share of the headline growth.
For a beginner, the lesson is simple. A strong index number does not mean every company is doing well. Look at the sectors behind it, especially if you own only a handful of stocks.
Early Reports From Fiscal-August Companies
A small group of companies closes its books earlier than the calendar quarter, so they give an early look at how the quarter is going. Sixteen S&P 500 members have already reported results for the quarter ending in August. Their combined earnings are up about 188%, but chipmaker Micron accounts for most of that jump. Without Micron, growth is closer to 11.7%.
Among those sixteen, about 81% beat profit estimates and 75% beat revenue estimates. It is a tiny sample, so it should not be read as a forecast for the whole index. Still, it shows how heavily one company can distort an average.
Two big names are worth watching later in the cycle. Nvidia’s quarterly profit is forecast to rise roughly 90%, while Alphabet’s is expected to grow only about 2.8%. That contrast shows how uneven growth can be even among the largest companies.
Valuation: Are Stocks Expensive?
Strong profits are only half the story. The other half is price. The forward price-to-earnings ratio (forward P/E) compares the index level with expected profits over the next twelve months.
FactSet puts it at 19.0. That is below the five-year average of 19.8, just under the ten-year average of 19.1, and down from 20.4 at the end of the second quarter. In other words, profits have grown faster than prices, which makes the market look a little cheaper than it did three months ago.
This is one reason some analysts describe the setup as supportive. Still, a ratio is not a prediction. If profits fall short of forecasts, the ratio will rise even if prices stay still.
How the Fed Could Shape the S&P 500 Earnings Season
Company results do not arrive in a vacuum. The Federal Reserve raised rates on 16 September, and its next meeting is on 27 and 28 October, in the middle of the S&P 500 earnings season. We explain the details in our guide to the Fed rate hike 2026.
Softer jobs data on 2 October lowered the odds of another hike, according to market commentary. Higher borrowing costs squeeze companies that rely on debt and can make investors less willing to pay high prices for stocks. If the Fed signals more hikes, even good profit reports may get a muted reaction.
Key Dates to Watch
- 13 October: big banks begin reporting third-quarter results
- 14 October: US consumer price index (inflation) report
- 27 to 28 October: Federal Reserve meeting
- 3 November: US midterm elections
- Late October to mid-November: most remaining S&P 500 companies report
What Beginners Can Do During the S&P 500 Earnings Season
You do not need to trade around every report, and earnings season rewards patience more than speed. A few habits help.
- Judge the whole picture. One company missing estimates does not mean the market is weak.
- Check why a stock moved. Results, guidance and valuation can all push a price in different directions.
- Keep your plan. If you invest regularly, our guide on how to start investing in the share market covers the basics of spreading money over time.
- Do not chase headlines. A big one-day jump can reverse the next day.
- Think about income as well as growth. Our look at dividend growth stocks shows another way to benefit from healthy profits.
Risks and Unknowns
Even a strong quarter carries risks that are easy to overlook:
- Forecasts can miss: 29.5% is an estimate, and different providers show different numbers.
- Narrow leadership: much of the growth comes from a small group of sectors and companies.
- Interest rates: another Fed hike could weigh on stocks.
- Concentration: a few huge tech companies can swing the index, a theme we discuss in our piece on the AI stock market correction.
- Geopolitics and inflation: euro-area inflation reached 3.8%, its highest in three years, which hints at pressure on costs worldwide.
More Reading and Sources
This guide is based on public data, and every number is attributed to the provider that published it.
The figures in this guide come from FactSet’s earnings season preview for Q3 2026 and an FXStreet note on the market setup. Estimates change daily, so check the latest data before making any decision.
FAQ
What is the S&P 500 earnings season? It is the roughly six-week period each quarter when most companies in the S&P 500 publish their results. Big banks usually open it.
When does earnings season start in October 2026? Big banks begin reporting on 13 October, and the rest of the index follows over the next several weeks.
How much are S&P 500 earnings expected to grow in Q3 2026? FactSet expects about 29.5% growth in profits and 12.3% in revenue. Other providers show lower figures, around 24.6% for profits.
Why do stocks fall after good earnings? Prices react to how results compare with expectations, not to results alone. A company can grow profits and still disappoint if investors hoped for more or if guidance is weak.
Which sectors are leading the S&P 500 earnings season? Energy, information technology, communication services and materials are among the leaders in expected earnings growth.
Should beginners buy stocks before earnings? Nobody can predict how a report will land. Most beginners are better off following a regular plan than guessing results.
Final Thoughts
The S&P 500 earnings season arrives with high expectations, healthy guidance and a valuation that looks slightly less stretched than it did three months ago. The risks are real too: concentrated growth, a Fed that has started raising rates again, and forecasts that can change.
The season will not answer every question about where stocks go next, but it will show how healthy company finances really are. The calm approach is to watch the pattern across many companies, not any one headline. We will update this guide as more results arrive.
